有實際研究經驗的研究員都知道,實驗做不出原本預期的結果是研究生涯的家常便飯。一般總認為要有「漂亮」的數據才能「拿出去見人」,不如預期或難以解釋的實驗數據通常被列為負面結果。
迫於發表壓力,目前學術界解決負面數據的大概有幾種方法:
- 重新嘗試變化各種可能影響結果的實驗因素,希望終有一天能篩選出「最合己意」的結果;
- 怎麼試都不成功,則放棄發表;
- 或是僅發表有說服力的數據,省去可能有爭議性的數據不提。
負面研究結果為什麼重要?
其實不管是以上哪種做法,嚴格說起來,都有失科學研究的公正性和透明度;例如幾個隱藏問題:
- 「自欺欺人」之嫌;數據或結論是在有特定期望或偏見的情況下所做出的。
- 負面結果不一定「真的負面」;或許犧牲了可能另有含義的數據。
- 「報喜不報憂」,失敗經驗沒有分享機會,恐怕未來同儕或同領域研究員需要浪費不必要的時間重蹈覆轍。
科學界普遍也開始意識到這個問題,因此近年來有如Journal of Negative Results, Journal ofPharmaceutical Negative Results, Journal of Negative Results in BioMedicine, Journal ofPharmaceutical Negative Results, All Results Journals等等的期刊,鼓勵發表認為「不成功」的數據,以利學術知識的流通和科學發展。
另外,負面結果不一定真的「一無是處」。利用轉換說法的方式,化負面為正面,例如標題使用“unexpected“, “surprising“, “interesting“, “…is not…“或類似的字眼,說明雖然實驗數據不如一開始預期,但卻出現了意想不到的效果,或是產生值得思考的問題,或間接反證了某種理論。
所以以後實驗若不成功,別沮喪得太早,用正向的態度面對負面結果,試試我們討論的兩種途徑。負面數據一樣可以發表!
Hypothesis-driven research is at the heart of scientific endeavor, and it is often the positive, confirmatory data that get the most attention and guide further research. But many studies produce non-confirmatory data—observations that refute current ideas and carefully constructed hypotheses. And it can be argued that these “negative data,” far from having little value in science, are actually an integral part of scientific progress that deserve more attention.
At first glance, this may seem a little nonsensical; after all, how can non-confirmatory results help science to progress when they fail to substantiate anything? But in fact, in a philosophical sense, only negative data resulting in rejection of a hypothesis represent real progress; positive data in support of the hypothesis cannot exclude the possibility that it may be rejected by future experiments. As philosopher of science Karl Popper stated in 1963: “Every refutation should be regarded as a great success; not merely a success of the scientist who refuted the theory, but also of the scientist who created the refuted theory and who thus in the first instance suggested, if only indirectly, the refuting experiment.”
On a more practical level, Journal of Negative Results in Biomedicine (JNRBM) was launched in 2002 on the premise that “failure” is as important in science as in other aspects of life, and that scientific progress depends not only on the accomplishments of individuals but requires collaboration, teamwork, and open communication of all results—positive and negative. After all, the scientific community can only learn from negative results if the data are published. With JNRBM, we want to provide a forum for the discussion of these non-confirmatory findings, and to provide scientists with balanced information to advance the improvement of experimental design and clinical decision-making.